The Sweet Taste Of Victory

The Teamsters endorsed Obama today, as did Ben and Jerry (yes, the ice cream guys). Teamsters + Ben and Jerry’s = extremely mixed results.

Bill Clinton had one of his less-savvy moments on the stump today:

42nd President: If she win in Texas and Ohio, I think she’ll be the nominee.

Crowd of Hillary Fans: Woooo! (enthusiastic)

42nd President: If you don’t deliver for her, I don’t think she can be. It’s all on you.

Crowd: wooo...wait, huh? (sadder, and much less enthusiastic)

Hm. Perhaps a little more direct that the Clinton campaign might have liked. At least he didn’t hit anyone this time.

Hillary lost again. She’s trailing by a considerable enough margin that she now needs not only to win both Texas and Ohio, but to run up big victories just in order to pull even in delegates. With Obama eating into Hillary’s base (ew) everywhere, and Texas in a statisical dead heat, that doesn’t appear likely. It seemed like she would give Obama a fight in WI, but she lost by 17 percentage points.

We’re getting closer and closer to an Obama mandate, while the chances of Hillary claiming that mantle are becoming almost nil.

In a show of uniformity, journalists everywhere are saying that she needs to refocus her narrative to position herself ahead of Obama. But this idea raises an interesting question: Did Hillary have a narrative in the first place?

Probably not. At this point, she seems guilty of the same miscue that neutered Rudy Giuliani’s bid, and which has continued to hurt John McCain -- she assumed too early that she would win her party’s nomination, and began establishing herself as a likable candidate for independents. She ran to the center before she had secured the support of her base.

The high number of people who rated her “unfavorable” was her biggest problem during the Summer and Fall. The perception of her as an overly ambitious robo-woman -- more than a little sexist, since few people would make such a statement if a male candidate was so authoritative and hard-bitten -- handcuffed her early on. It seems as though she sought to soothe these negative perceptions, and presented herself as nice, agreeable, and moderate. The last one is the sticking point.

Trying to hold a middle road, she couldn’t hit her opponents as hard as they hit her without confirming her unfavorable stereotype. Every Democrat attacked her, and, as the presumptive nominee, so did the top Republicans. She grinned and bore it. That’s all well and good if you’re in office, but she never carved out an image, never distinguished herself, and never honed a narrative. As a result, the most ready adjective now used to describe Hillary is “flawed.” “Flawed but Prepared” doesn’t make for a knockout campaign poster.

Wanting to de-polarize herself, she avoided taking clear positions on notable issues, and skipped tough Senate votes. She traded in a polarizing appearance for one of questionable authenticity. Obama has embraced who he is, while Hillary has run from her identity. If her own campaign can’t make her persona clear, how can she expect voters to assume they know her well enough to elect her.

There is one exception to her identity crisis, and it isn’t particularly positive: Hillary has presented herself, albeit only tacitly, as a political insider who can “get things done” once in office. As a sophomore Senator and former First Lady, she didn’t have a lot of choice there. Regardless, she embraced it, perhaps never having sensed how disastrous that image might be in an year when most of the electorate is furious with the establishment -- both Democratic and Republican.

Meanwhile, Barack was busy “changing the tone” of the campaign, coming down on the liberal side of every major issue, re-introducing optimism and positive thinking, and stoking the fervor of his supporters. He embraced change like no other candidate could, and let his natural gift for rhetoric take over.

The idea of “restoration” was the best response she had. We need to reclaim the White House from the Bush conservatives: Hillary consistently used variations on that phrase. Perhaps it never occurred to her campaign staff that voters might realize that electing any Democrat would accomplish that goal, and that the debate stage was teeming with more credible and charismatic candidates.

Hillary chose a strategy that would hold on to her most dedicated supporters, but which could never have built up such a sizable and enthusiastic base as Obama’s campaign has now built.

She has had to accept losses in every caucus state because her supporters simply don’t love her as much as Barack’s love him. Suffering 10 consecutive losses since Super Tuesday, and trailing by over one million votes since that date, she has looked less than gracious in defeat. Staff shake-ups and her husband’s apparent anger on the campaign trail has only fueled speculation that the Clinton campaign is stunned by the recent results, and is falling apart.

Recall Florida is Rudy Country. Giuliani spent millions on that idea, hoping to convince voters there to ignore the results from other states, so that he could end a four-week streak of losses. Now Hillary must follow suit. If her victories in Texas and Ohio are anything less than overwhelming, she might be out of contention. And even if they are overwhelming victories, it still doesn’t look good.

She was the presumptive nominee for over a year, and yet she may never have given herself a chance. As least, unlike Rudy, she managed better than a fourth-place finish.