The World Tilts Obama

He's cut into Hillary's lead in Texas, and won the SEIU endorsement, which should help him in the working-class demographic that Clinton counts on in Ohio and elsewhere. Superdelegates from states he has won, who had been aligned with Clinton, have also begun to shift support over to him.

Some superdelegates, however, most notably in Harlem, still remain with Hillary despite Obama having convincingly won their districts, which raises the question: is there any way that Hillary can win the nomination without looking like she's circumventing the voters?

Say she wins both Ohio and Texas on March 4 (and she does have to win both), it won't be by a very large margin. The delegates would still be essentially deadlocked. If it takes superdelegates, or a backroom compromise, to hand her the nomination, voters won't appreciate that. Some have even implied they will vote for McCain (newly pro-torture) in the general if that happens.

She has already argued in favor of seating the delegates from Michigan and Florida's demi-primaries, where she ran unopposed, and many voters elected to skip the primaries because they knew the delegates would not be counted. The candidates all agreed to that in advance, so at best, that's changing the rules in the middle of the process, at worst it's cheating.

Even if you count the votes from Michigan and Florida, Obama leads in the popular vote. He's also won a majority of States. If he can continue to string together victories, and win amongst as broad a cross-section of the populace as he has been recently, then he can legitimately claim a mandate. The only mandate Hillary could potentially claim, barring a Mike Huckabee level miracle, is a mandate with party insiders, who favor her support of the status quo.

You'd like to assume that the DNC (hello, Howie) is smart enough to not allow that happen. It would alienate voters and completely undermine confidence in the political process, just as Barack Obama is on the verge of restoring that confidence.

Perhaps something will happen in the next few weeks, but right now it looks like Clinton will appear to have stolen the nomination, if she gets it. It would be lovely to see some selflessness from her, as opposed to an increase in nasty attacks and ethically questionable political moves. The election is far from over, and she's already beginning to look like a sore loser.

Obama seems to have the favorable rhetoric, and has taken substantial and correct positions on the focal issues. Hillary will have a hard time beating that, and then turning around and winning the November election. Obama would be riding a wave of populist enthusiasm, Hillary a wave of mutilation.

We'll see how things shake out on March 4. Here's hoping it doesn't get as messy as it might...